After weeks of hypothesis, the Colts lastly traded for disgruntled Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. The Colts gave up a 2021 third spherical choose and a conditional 2022 2nd spherical choose that turns into a 1st spherical choose if Wentz performs 75% of the snaps or 70% of the snaps and the staff makes the playoffs. The Colts will tackle the remaining 4 years of his contract at 24.6M per 12 months, with opt-out possibilities after every season.
Among the Stampede Blue writing crew got here collectively to share their ideas on the large information.
I believe this commerce must be damaged down into 4 components:
- His play
- His match with the staff
- His contract
- The commerce
His contract and his match with the staff are comparatively simple. Contract-wise, the cap hit could be very truthful and could possibly be an awesome cut price if Wentz performs like his previous self. If he fails to flourish, the Colts have possibilities to opt-out with out taking an excessive amount of harm. The Eagles actually took the brunt of the hit, particularly within the quick time period, regarding the contract. The Colts nonetheless have over 45M to play with and will retain some key gamers whereas searching for some elite free brokers.
With reference to his match with the staff, it’s not an ideal match nevertheless it’s fairly shut. The Colts have a powerful teaching employees round him and Frank Reich is aware of him effectively; Wentz additionally performed his greatest ball with Reich as his OC, which could be very encouraging. Carson Wentz will likely be surrounded by a implausible offensive line and a powerful operating recreation. As of this second, the receiver group is subpar, however with loads of free company targets and a number of high draft prospects, the Colts have many avenues to eradicate that want. Wentz’s match with the staff is fairly implausible.
The commerce itself is healthier than I imagined. Barring any sort of great harm, the deal is anticipated to be a 2021 third spherical choose, which isn’t main by any requirements, and a future 1st spherical choose (sure, I’m leaping the gun). If issues play out effectively, that future 1st will likely be someplace within the mid-20s and we’ve seen groups have the ability to construct correctly with out having 1st spherical picks. What the commerce does, nonetheless, is put a number of emphasis on the 2021 NFL Draft, as a result of there could be fewer choices subsequent season to repair any holes. If Wentz hits and is near his previous kind, this can be a main steal. If he doesn’t, then this received’t set again the franchise an excessive amount of.
Lastly, probably the most sophisticated half: his play. With Frank Reich as his OC, he was the frontrunner for MVP till a torn ACL ended his season. With Reich as his OC in 2016 and 2017, he has an 18-11 report with a 49:21 TD to INT ratio, over 61% completion share, and 6.8 yards per try common. These are comparatively spectacular numbers and make it extra spectacular contemplating these had been his first two seasons within the NFL. In Wentz’s 5 seasons within the NFL, 3 could be thought of above common to glorious, one could be thought of common, and one other under common. For those who have a look at the entire image, Wentz is an effective quarterback who had a blip. Final season, he had a banged-up offensive line and so they rolled principally with backups, brutal receivers, a tough operating recreation, and training that damage him; the deck was stacked in opposition to him, so I’ll roll with the concept that he’s extra prone to carry out like the three years previous to final 12 months somewhat than final 12 months, which was a brutal 12 months for the whole Eagles staff.
It is a high-risk, excessive reward transfer for the Colts. With a roster that is able to win now, Indy is placing all of its eggs within the Reich/Wentz basket, hoping to recreate a number of the identical magic we noticed from the duo in 2017. If there’s any coach who’s able to reviving Wentz’s profession, it’s Reich. I’ve little question approximately that. This transfer doesn’t look like a band-aid strategy, both. Reuniting Reich and Carson Wentz has the potential to pay main dividends for Indianapolis. The trick for Wentz is to not attempt to play hero ball. It’s not crucial. We all know what Wentz is able to when given the requisite items wanted to achieve success.
However there’s simply as a lot strain on Wentz as there’s Reich, for my part. Let’s not overlook that Wentz was — from a statistical standpoint — the worst QB in the whole league final season. No extra excuses, although. Wentz now has his coach in Reich, the most effective offensive strains within the league, and loads of up-and-coming stars at wideout, operating again, and on the defensive aspect of the ball, too. He’s received to take full benefit of the chance offered earlier than him. Chris Ballard has constructed a younger nucleus of gamers which can be able to take that subsequent step, and I firmly consider that Wentz — who’s simply 28-years-old — can’t solely recapture a number of the magic that we noticed early on in his profession however assist propel the Colts into greater than only a playoff contender for seasons to return.
After seemingly being linked to Carson Wentz for months the Indianapolis Colts lastly pull off a commerce for him. Carson Wentz will get traded for a comparatively low cost value all issues thought of for a beginning quarterback who might find yourself being a franchise quarterback once more. Wentz was putrid final season there is no such thing as a denying that however its what he did earlier than final 12 months that the Colts are banking on.
Wentz pre-2020 threw for 87 touchdowns and simply 28 interceptions in 4 seasons. The Colts are arrange completely for Wentz to succeed, he may have an elite offensive line, a high 5 operating again, younger weapons at huge receiver, reliable weapons are tight finish and a high 10 protection to assist him. Add in the truth that he may have Frank Reich teaching and mentoring him once more, who was his offensive coordinator for his greatest season within the NFL and it’s all trying very optimistic.
Reich has had a special beginning quarterback yearly he has been the pinnacle coach in Indianapolis which is way from preferrred however he has managed to enhance each quarterback he has labored with so there’s loads of hope that he can work his quarterback magic with Wentz too. It has been reported that Reich was vocal in wanting Wentz in Indy however I’m not too positive if I used to be Reich if I might be being overly vocal for a quarterback who completely collapsed final season, finishing a career-worst 57.4% of his passes for simply 2,620 yards with 16 touchdowns, and a league-leading 15 interceptions all earlier than being benched for a rookie.
If Wentz can return to pre-2020 kind then a third spherical choose this 12 months and a 1st spherical choose subsequent 12 months will appear like a steal and Ballard will fortunately ship these picks to Philly. If Wentz performs as he did in 2020 then the Colts will likely be looking out for an additional beginning quarterback subsequent season whereas paying Wentz $22 million for the 12 months and be down two draft picks. Every little thing is ready up completely for Carson Wentz to succeed, whether or not that occurs is right down to him and the Colts teaching employees.
Nicely, after months of hypothesis it lastly occurred, Wentz is formally the Colts’ beginning quarterback for no less than the next season, and I couldn’t be extra excited for it. Given the compensation Ballard needed to give, this can be a low-risk, high-reward state of affairs for the Colts. If Wentz continues to play like he did final season, then the Colts can simply bench him and subsequent years’ choose is not going to be a first-rounder, but when he can regain his previous kind then a 3rd and a late first is a very low cost value to pay for a franchise quarterback, particularly contemplating simply how a lot the Rams simply gave the Lions and the way a lot the Texans’ are reportedly anticipating for Deshaun Watson. After all, after a rocky 2020 season, Wentz is nothing just like the quarterbacks talked about above, and he additionally comes with a hefty wage.
Total, this can be a riskier acquisition than the Rivers’ signing final season, however this larger threat additionally brings the possibility of a lot increased returns. If Wentz can recapture a few of that MVP marketing campaign magic, then the Colts instantly turn out to be Tremendous Bowl contenders, and that’s what it’s all approximately.
T. Troy Russell
He’s received rather a lot to show to me. Wentz completed thirty first in EPA per dropback final 12 months. Merely put, good QBs are not often that dangerous. For reference, Brissett was twenty fourth in 2017 and twentieth in 2019. Even the 2011 Colts completed increased than thirty first (OK thirtieth, however nonetheless).
In his 5 years of the league, Wentz’s EPA effectivity has ranked twentieth, 2nd, fifteenth, 18th, thirty first. He had one good 12 months and has progressively gotten worse. Listed here are the QBs from the final 10 years that completed thirty first or thirty second in EPA effectivity: it’s not an encouraging listing.
Perhaps Reich can get him again to kind however I’ll consider it once I see it. Tannehills can occur, however they’re veeeery uncommon.